In the case of betting on a Maiden race, where none of the competing horses has ever won a race in its life, I decided to change the "lifetime win percentage" to "lifetime in the money percentage", or how many times the horse has finished in the top three in the number of times the horse has competed. I have the variables deemed most important by Bolton and Chapman, and needed to weigh them. Armed with this new information, it was time to make an equation of my own. The best jockeys were often put on the best horses, and their correlation nullified much of their value. The shocker to me was that jockeys, post position, and weight were deemed inconsequential for the most part. "Lifetime win percentage" was also considered a significant variable, but not so much as the first two. There research suggested that "average amount of money earned per race in the current year" and "average speed rating over the last four races" were the two most important factors. Bolton and Chapman set out to find which variables would be most important to consider when evaluating the horses in a race, and predicting the outcome. Chapman, I found the information that would carry me through this project. In “Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinominal Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races”, by Ruth N. Curiously enough, there are more than a few scholars who have been enthralled enough by the sport and the math involved to have published there own works on the subject. The base of my research was academic journals. A formula that can pick horses better than just looking at the morning line odds would make people feel like they have a huge advantage. All it takes is a formula that will produce winners with consistency. Horse racing will be fine, especially after finding a new casual audience of supporters. As soon as the system starts getting beaten, the people in charge of the track will change it. If people think they have an edge over the house, they will pay very close attention. The money can be made up to a degree in television ratings and advertising. People just need to think they are smarter than the game and believe they can win.
Horse racing can have that resurgence too, and it won't take a Triple Crown winner to do it. In fact, the time following the MIT blackjack team saw resurgence in the game. Did the MIT blackjack team destroy cards? Absolutely not. On the other hand, if the betting public shows an interest in the sport.making money has a tendency to do that to people, and then the sport of horse racing will have a revival. Seriously, only the Triple Crown gets people talking, and only a terrible accident like Barbaro can get people to remember a horse anymore. I'm sure Street Sense doesn't care that you do not remember him, but Calvin Borel should be upset. Name the Horse that won last year's Kentucky Derby. Name the jockey that rode the winner of last year's Kentucky Derby. Really though, it doesn't have much further to fall. If the tracks cannot make money, then they will no longer hold races. I completely understand that succeeding in this endeavor could ruin horse racing as it exists. In other words, I approached horse racing with a gambler's eye, a microscope, a Daily Racing Form, and a calculator, to see just how close I could come to predicting the outcome of a horse race on a regular basis.
It has not been research to find great horses, jockeys and trainers, although that was an inevitable side effect along the way, or to find a better feel and respect for the tradition, another glorious side effect, but to predict horse races more accurately than the morning line odds, and find the probabilities of each horse coming in first. For months I have been researching horse racing. I have been saying that I had something worthwhile up my sleeve, but it has not been ready to put into words.until now.
Probability race game drivers#
Here are the odds for all the drivers competing in Sunday’s 2023 Wurth 400.Yes, I have been away for quite some time now. Busch is +1800 to win this weekend in Dover. Kyle Busch won last week’s race at Talladega and is now tied with Larson and Byron for most wins this season. finished second and Blaney finished third. Denny Hamlin won the first stage and Ryan Blaney won the second stage before Elliott claimed the checkered flag. William Byron follows at +550, defending race winner Chase Elliott is +650, and Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell sit at +900.Ī year ago, Chris Buescher claimed pole position in the second round of qualifying after Ross Chastain claimed the fastest time in the first round. Kyle Larson enters race week as the favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook with +500 odds. The race was previously sponsored by Drydene and was known as the DuraMAX Drydene 400 last year and the Drydene 400 in 2021. The race is scheduled for Sunday at 2 p.m.
NASCAR heads to the Monster Mile this weekend as Dover Motor Speedway hosts the Wurth 400.
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